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The primary goal of the US-Israel strikes on Iran is to weaken the Iranian regime by targeting its military capabilities and leadership. The operation aims to destabilize the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, thereby encouraging a potential uprising among the Iranian populace. President Trump has explicitly called for Iranians to 'take over your government,' suggesting a desire for regime change.
Iran's leadership has condemned the strikes as acts of aggression and violations of sovereignty. Reports indicate that Supreme Leader Khamenei may have been moved to a secure location amid the attacks. Iranian officials have vowed to retaliate and maintain their military capabilities, emphasizing resilience against external threats.
US-Iran relations have been fraught since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which resulted in the overthrow of the US-backed Shah. The subsequent establishment of the Islamic Republic led to the US imposing sanctions and viewing Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. Tensions escalated with Iran's nuclear program, leading to various conflicts, including military confrontations and diplomatic negotiations.
Iran possesses a diverse military arsenal, including ballistic missiles, drones, and naval forces capable of operating in the Persian Gulf. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plays a key role in Iran's military strategy, focusing on asymmetric warfare and regional influence through proxy groups. This capability allows Iran to project power despite facing sanctions and military threats.
The US-Israel strikes could significantly destabilize the Middle East. They may provoke retaliatory actions from Iran or its proxies across the region, potentially escalating conflicts in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Increased tensions could also disrupt oil supplies and lead to a broader military confrontation, affecting global markets and security.
Supreme Leader Khamenei is the highest authority in Iran, holding ultimate power over the military, judiciary, and media. His leadership is pivotal in shaping Iran's domestic and foreign policies, particularly its stance against the US and Israel. Khamenei's position symbolizes the Islamic Republic's resistance to Western influence, making him a key target in US military operations.
Public opinion in Iran is complex, with significant divisions regarding support for the government and foreign interventions. Some Iranians express frustration over the regime's policies and economic challenges, while others rally around national pride against perceived foreign aggression. The recent strikes may galvanize anti-regime sentiments among some, while others could see it as a rallying point for national unity.
International law generally prohibits military interventions without UN Security Council approval, viewing them as violations of state sovereignty. However, exceptions exist for self-defense or when authorized by international bodies. The legality of the US-Israel strikes could be contested, as they may not meet the criteria for justified military action under international law.
Civilians in Iran may face dire consequences from the strikes, including casualties and infrastructure damage. The targeting of military sites near populated areas raises concerns about civilian safety. Additionally, ongoing military actions could exacerbate humanitarian conditions, leading to displacement and increased suffering among the Iranian population.
The global community's reaction to the strikes has been mixed. Some countries, particularly allies of the US, may support the actions as a means to curb Iran's influence. Conversely, nations like Russia and China have condemned the strikes, viewing them as unjustified aggression. The situation raises concerns about escalating tensions and the potential for wider conflict in the region.
