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The New START treaty, officially known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, is a nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. It was signed in 2010 and aimed to reduce the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. The treaty allowed both nations to limit their nuclear arsenals to 1,550 warheads each and included provisions for extensive verification measures to ensure compliance.
The New START treaty was signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague by then-U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It entered into force on February 5, 2011, and was a pivotal agreement following the previous Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), which had been in effect since 1991.
The main provisions of the New START treaty include limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for each country, a cap of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and 800 total launchers. The treaty also established a robust verification regime, including on-site inspections and data exchanges to ensure compliance and transparency.
The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, primarily due to the lack of political will to negotiate an extension or replacement agreement. The U.S. and Russia failed to reach a consensus on new terms, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions and differing priorities, such as Russia's military actions in Ukraine and U.S. concerns about China's expanding nuclear capabilities.
Without nuclear limits, the risk of a renewed arms race increases significantly. Experts warn that both the U.S. and Russia may ramp up their nuclear arsenals, leading to heightened global tensions and instability. The absence of a treaty also diminishes transparency and trust, increasing the likelihood of miscalculations that could escalate into conflict.
The expiration of the New START treaty has strained U.S.-Russia relations further, as it removes a key framework for dialogue and cooperation on nuclear arms control. With no legally binding limits, both nations may pursue more aggressive military postures, exacerbating existing tensions related to conflicts like the war in Ukraine and increasing the risk of direct confrontation.
U.S.-Russia arms control has a rich history dating back to the Cold War, with landmark agreements like the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) in the 1970s and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in 1987. These treaties aimed to reduce the threat of nuclear war and establish frameworks for verification. The New START treaty represented the latest effort to manage nuclear arsenals, but its expiration marks a significant regression in this long-standing dialogue.
China's expanding nuclear arsenal poses a new challenge for future arms control negotiations. As the U.S. and Russia reassess their nuclear strategies, they may seek to include China in future treaties to ensure a trilateral approach to nuclear stability. However, China has shown reluctance to participate in such discussions, complicating efforts to establish a comprehensive framework for nuclear arms control.
Experts express significant concern about the potential for a new nuclear arms race following the expiration of the New START treaty. They argue that without limits, both the U.S. and Russia may increase their nuclear capabilities, leading to a destabilizing arms buildup. The lack of a treaty undermines decades of progress in nuclear disarmament and may provoke other nations to expand their arsenals, further escalating global tensions.
To facilitate new agreements, both the U.S. and Russia need to engage in diplomatic dialogue aimed at rebuilding trust. They could explore confidence-building measures, such as military-to-military communications and transparency initiatives. Additionally, involving other nuclear powers like China in discussions could help create a more comprehensive arms control framework. Establishing clear objectives and addressing mutual security concerns will be crucial for any future agreements.
