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The UAE's primary goal in Yemen has been to support the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a group seeking autonomy for southern Yemen. The UAE aims to counter Iranian influence and stabilize its interests in the region. Additionally, the UAE has focused on counterterrorism efforts against groups like Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The UAE's involvement has shifted over time, initially aimed at supporting the internationally recognized Yemeni government but increasingly aligning with separatist forces.
The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has been historically strong, rooted in shared interests and mutual support in regional conflicts. However, recent events, particularly the differing strategies in Yemen, have strained this alliance. The UAE's support for the STC and its withdrawal of forces following Saudi airstrikes have highlighted diverging priorities, leading to accusations and public disagreements. This tension marks a significant shift in their previously united front in the Gulf region.
Recent tensions in Yemen were sparked by Saudi Arabia's airstrikes on the port city of Mukalla, targeting shipments allegedly linked to UAE-backed separatists. This action came after Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of supporting separatist forces that threaten the Yemeni government. The situation escalated when Saudi Arabia issued an ultimatum for UAE forces to withdraw, leading to a significant diplomatic rift between the two Gulf allies.
Separatists, particularly those aligned with the Southern Transitional Council (STC), play a crucial role in Yemen's conflict. They seek independence for southern Yemen and have received support from the UAE. Their actions have complicated the war, as they often clash with forces loyal to the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is backed by Saudi Arabia. This fragmentation has contributed to the prolonged instability and violence in the region.
The civil war in Yemen has been ongoing since 2014, initially sparked by the Houthi movement's takeover of the capital, Sana'a. The conflict has evolved into a complex war involving multiple factions, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and various regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Despite numerous attempts at peace negotiations, fighting continues, leading to a humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and in need of aid.
The UAE's withdrawal from Yemen could significantly alter the dynamics of the conflict. It may embolden separatist forces and complicate the situation for the Yemeni government, which relies on UAE support against the Houthis. Additionally, this withdrawal could lead to a power vacuum that may be exploited by extremist groups. The move reflects the UAE's shifting priorities and a desire to de-escalate tensions with Saudi Arabia, potentially impacting regional security.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) is a political organization formed in 2017, representing southern Yemen's interests. It seeks greater autonomy or independence for southern regions, which have historical grievances against the northern government. The STC has received support from the UAE, particularly in its military operations against the Houthi forces and the Yemeni government. Its rise has added complexity to the conflict, as it often clashes with forces aligned with the internationally recognized government.
The tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, alongside the ongoing conflict in Yemen, pose significant risks to regional stability. A fractured alliance between these two Gulf powers could embolden adversaries, such as Iran and extremist groups, and lead to increased violence in Yemen. Additionally, the humanitarian crisis resulting from the war could trigger broader regional and international responses, further complicating the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE share deep historical ties, rooted in cultural, religious, and economic connections. Both nations are part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and have collaborated closely on security and economic issues. Their alliance was particularly solidified during the Arab Spring and subsequent conflicts, where they supported similar regimes and countered Iranian influence. However, recent divergences in foreign policy, especially in Yemen, have tested this longstanding partnership.
International powers view the conflict in Yemen with concern, primarily due to its humanitarian implications and the potential for regional destabilization. The U.S. has historically supported Saudi Arabia, viewing it as a key ally in countering Iranian influence. However, there is increasing pressure for a diplomatic resolution due to the humanitarian crisis. Other nations, like Russia and Iran, have taken advantage of the situation to expand their influence, complicating international efforts for peace.
