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The UAE's involvement in Yemen primarily supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking greater autonomy for southern Yemen. This complicates the conflict, as Saudi Arabia, while allied with the UAE, has targeted STC forces due to their growing power. The UAE's backing of separatists can lead to increased tensions within the Saudi-led coalition, potentially destabilizing the region further and prolonging the conflict.
The conflict in Yemen has escalated with recent airstrikes by Saudi Arabia targeting the port city of Mukalla, where weapons shipped from the UAE were allegedly received by separatist forces. This marks a significant increase in hostilities, indicating a shift in Saudi Arabia's military strategy against not just Houthi rebels but also UAE-backed separatists, reflecting deepening divisions within the coalition fighting against the Houthis.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC) is a political organization in Yemen advocating for the independence of southern Yemen. Formed in 2017, it has received support from the UAE and has been involved in armed confrontations with forces loyal to the Yemeni government. The STC's increasing power poses challenges for the Saudi-led coalition, as it complicates the overall strategy and objectives in the Yemeni conflict.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen share a complex history marked by cultural, religious, and political ties. Historically, Yemen has been influenced by various kingdoms and tribes, with Saudi Arabia often intervening in its affairs. The two countries have had conflicts, particularly during the Yemeni Civil War that began in 2014, where Saudi Arabia intervened to support the internationally recognized government against Houthi forces, reflecting ongoing regional power dynamics.
The conflict in Yemen significantly affects regional stability, as it involves multiple actors with competing interests, including Iran, which supports the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which back different factions. This proxy struggle can lead to broader geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, impacting oil prices, security in the Red Sea, and humanitarian crises, as millions face famine and displacement due to the ongoing violence.
The bombings in Yemen exacerbate an already dire humanitarian crisis, with millions facing food insecurity, lack of medical care, and displacement. The attacks on infrastructure, such as ports, hinder the delivery of essential supplies, worsening conditions for civilians. The ongoing conflict has led to widespread suffering, with the UN describing the situation as one of the worst humanitarian crises globally, highlighting the urgent need for aid and a political resolution.
The international response to the attacks has been mixed, with some countries condemning the violence and calling for restraint. The UN has urged all parties to cease hostilities and engage in dialogue to achieve a peaceful resolution. However, geopolitical interests often complicate responses, as nations weigh their alliances and strategic objectives in the region, leading to limited actionable measures to address the crisis.
Airstrikes against separatist forces can both weaken and galvanize these movements. While they may disrupt operations and supply lines, such attacks can also rally support among local populations and enhance the resolve of separatist groups like the STC. Additionally, airstrikes can create a perception of external aggression, potentially increasing recruitment and support for the separatists, complicating the conflict further.
The UAE's strategic interests in Yemen include securing maritime routes, countering Iranian influence, and supporting its allies in the region. By backing the STC, the UAE aims to establish a foothold in southern Yemen, which is critical for controlling the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping lane. Additionally, the UAE seeks to project power in the region and protect its investments, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict.
The UN has played a mediating role in the Yemen conflict, facilitating peace talks and attempting to broker ceasefires. It has also provided humanitarian assistance to millions affected by the war, advocating for the protection of civilians. Despite its efforts, achieving a lasting resolution has been challenging due to the complex dynamics among various factions and the lack of cooperation from key parties involved in the conflict.
